Well, hullo everyone and welcome to 2024. Its hardly rocket science, and to use a phrase that I have always disliked, its a ‘no brainer’. The rising tensions in the middle east are like a smoldering pile of embers and highly combustible materials just waiting to take light and explode.
I was about 18 years old when the first Iraq war broke out, and I can still remember watching on the TV as it unfolded.
Still, as much as possible I want to keep my biases and my opinions and emotions out of this report. When I was at university use of the personal pronoun ‘I’ was frowned upon, so I am already challenging the orthodox styles of report writing.
I feel like George Kennan though in a sense in that at the beginning of his famous ‘long telegram’ something like 40 odd pages long, he begins by saying that oversimplification is dangerous.
This is as true today as it was then. The background information about conflict in the middle east dates back to US involvement in the 2nd World War. I will get to that later on in this report.
First, I want to lay out the Key points to consider.
Overview of the situation - what are the causes of the tension in the middle east? What political, economic, and social factors contribute to it? What is the role of religion, ethnicity, and culture in the conflict?
Potential consequences of a major conflict - the potential consequences of a major conflict in the middle east must be considered. The impact on the global economy, the potential for increased levels and extremes in violence creating instability in the region. There is a potential that it will become a wider conflict that involves other countries.
Possible solutions - possible solutions to the conflict include diplomacy, economic penalties and or sanctions which are limited in their efficacy, military intervention. The pros and cons of each possibility must be considered. What would I recommend if I were able to offer recommendations? Can you, and should you negotiate with a lion when it has your head in its jaws? As Winston Churchill famously said?
Conclusion. A summary of key findings and take aways.
But the history of US involvement in this area goes back to the 2nd world war and the supply of the Soviet Union under what I would presume to be the lend lease program.
Terrorism and oil seem to be the major drivers of simmering conflict in the middle east.
The history of conflict in the area goes back to the Suez Canal between Israel, Britain, France and Egypt. I do not wish to avoid or minimize the conflicts that followed such as the gulf war, the Iraq war, and the war in Afghanistan, but I do want to try and get back to the origins of conflict in this area.
It’s interesting that the beginning involved African nations and the safe passage of ships through the sea. 2 centuries later and we are still facing the same problems.
The middle east is a complicated region, and it is facing a number of economic problems and head winds.
So, you need to understand that the region is complicated and that there is no simple solution. Climate change is exasperating these problems.
This is not an exhaustive list or analysis. A meta-analysis would be the best option. Taking every article and peer reviewed journal article from as many sources as possible and reviewing them would be ideal. Still there is always room for improvement and as the saying goes, you do not have to see the whole staircase, just take the first step (Martin Luther King), and continuous improvement is better than delayed perfection (Mark Twain). Succes is not final, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts (Winston Churchill). It is also important to understand that you will never cross the ocean until you have the courage to lose sight of the shore (Christopher Columbus). I believe that this is true intellectually, ideologically as well. As individuals and as a society we need to have some faith that we will figure things out eventually after every other avenue is first explored.
Therefore, I want you to take the short comings of this report as things that you can either bring up with me in future correspondence or in which you yourself can do some research and put me right if I have made a mistake or left something important out.
What are the solutions then? It seems to me that the solutions to these problems and to many other problems might be linked together. Climate change for example is something that we are all facing. Society itself is changing quickly and in ways that we are perhaps not aware of nor do we fully understand the implications of new technologies.
It might be an oversimplification, but we need to take some simple steps to protect ourselves from these new technologies. Just a simple thing like setting some boundaries and setting times to take a break and enjoy some time out!
As you can see it’s a combination of things. These are things that I am actively trying to pursue in my life. Playing my guitar more often. Engaging in religious debates with coworkers even though I am an atheist.
I’m still trying to figure out how to use technology to my advantage. At the moment it involves asking AI questions and then using that information to make informed decisions regarding investments and in figuring out how to deal with problems I have in my workplace or in my career.
The next part of this report will detail how I am positioning myself and a model portfolio that I have designed to test my theories. I have invested $1600 in three different types of portfolios. One is aimed at investments recommended by AI, the second is my own ideas, and the third is a hybrid model of the two combined. Over time I will track how well each one does and post results at intervals of about 6 months to 12 months. It’s not a get rich quick scheme its more of a way to make the research more relevant and to test my hypothesis.
I will finish by saying, this is just the beginning.